How one American economist’s vision quietly rewired Afghanistan and ignited a global war of ideology.

“He believed that whoever controlled religion, teachers, and wealth would control Afghanistan.”
— Extract from Arthur Powell’s private Afghan diary, 1964

The American Economist Who Shaped Afghanistan’s Fate

Arthur Powell was an American expert in accounts, budgeting, and office management. He had served as an assistant to the U.S. Secretary of Economics and was also the head of Economic Warfare. In 1960, he joined the Asia Foundation, where he was later appointed as the economic adviser to King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan.

King Zahir Shah ruled Afghanistan for forty years (1933–1973). In 1973, when he traveled to Rome for an eye surgery, his cousin Mohammad Daoud Khan overthrew him. That coup marked the beginning of a bloody cycle in Afghanistan, one that, even after 52 years, has not truly ended.

Powell’s Vision for a Modern Afghanistan

Arthur Powell had designed for Zahir Shah a model of a free-market economy. Acting on his advice, the King granted women’s rights, opened universities and women’s colleges, and took steps toward a more liberal society.

This alignment with Western ideals drew Afghanistan closer to the United States and farther from Soviet influence, something Moscow deeply resented. Consequently, the Soviets supported Daoud Khan in toppling the King. Daoud took power as Afghanistan’s first president, and soon the political tension spiraled into chaos, culminating in the Soviet invasion of 1979 and Daoud’s assassination.

The Secret Collector of Afghanistan’s Archives

But long before those events, Arthur Powell was in Kabul, working close to the King and gaining access to Afghanistan’s national archives. Each day he photographed documents, filmed cultural material, or wrote down key observations, secretly sending copies through Pakistan, often via PIA flights from Karachi, to the United States.

He also kept a detailed personal diary, documenting his travels, tribal customs, palace intrigues, Soviet interference, and the growing unrest within Afghan society.

Understanding the Afghan Psyche

From his observations, Powell concluded that teachers held an unusually respected position in Afghan culture. He saw Afghans as deeply religious yet commercially minded, a nation where faith and finance walked side by side.

His assessment was that anyone wishing to control Afghanistan would need to master three cards: religion, education (teachers), and wealth. With those in hand, he believed, the country would fall like a ripe fruit.

A Warning Ignored

During his five years in Afghanistan, Powell traveled across every province, meticulously copied vast portions of the archives, and by 1965 had gathered around 20,000 documents: the largest private Afghan collection in the world.

Based on this treasure trove, Powell warned the CIA in 1965 that the Soviets were planning to overthrow Zahir Shah, which would unleash a chain reaction across Central Asia. He predicted that after Afghanistan, Russia would seek influence in Iran and Pakistan, one for its oil and gas, the other for its military and geographic advantage.

If the USSR succeeded in subduing these two, he said, it could encircle the Arab world and even threaten Europe, emerging as the sole global superpower.

Powell’s Geostrategic Blueprint

Therefore, Powell urged Washington to focus immediately on Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan, emphasizing the existing Sunni–Shia divide. Deepening this division, he argued, would ensure that revolutionary movements could never unite these nations under one front.

He also stressed the importance of cultivating Afghan teachers and scholars, predicting that they would one day become America’s greatest asset.

The Birth of a Hidden Archive

Arthur Powell passed away in 1976, but before that, in the early 1970s, he handed over his entire 20,000-document collection to the University of Nebraska. With CIA support, the university established in 1972 the “Center for Afghanistan and Regional Studies”,  the world’s most comprehensive archive on Afghanistan.

It contained:

• Royal court records from 1842
• Reports from British administrators like Lord Lytton and Lord Curzon
• Accounts of Afghan wars
• Geographical surveys and reports from 1921 about regions from Chitral to Dera Ismail Khan
• Details of Russian incursions into Khiva
• Documents on Afghan relations with Sikh ruler Ranjit Singh

Powell’s research was so meticulous that he even noted Afghanistan’s cultural superstition around the number 39, considered inauspicious due to its association with brothel codes,  hence, vehicles or properties bearing “39” would never sell in Afghanistan.

Powell’s Legacy and the Seeds of Jihad

In the years ahead, Powell’s collection and the Nebraska Center’s analysis played a crucial role in shaping American influence and intelligence strategy in the region. Acting upon these insights, under U.S. guidance, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto selected 16 Afghan professors from various universities and invited them to Pakistan for military and ideological training.

Few know that the roots of the Afghan Jihad trace back not to General Zia-ul-Haq, but to Bhutto’s regime.

Major General Naseerullah Babar was in charge of their training. These sixteen scholars later became key commanders in Afghanistan, sparking a movement that would burn for decades. Ironically, it was not faith but American geopolitical interests that planted the seeds of “Jihad.”

From Bhutto to Zia: The Flame Rekindled

When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the U.S. did not engage directly. General Zia, having overthrown Bhutto, needed a major war to justify his rule, so he revived Bhutto’s network of trained Afghan leaders: Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Burhanuddin Rabbani, Ahmad Shah Massoud, Abdul Rashid Dostum, and Abdul Rasul Sayyaf.

Soon, U.S. Congressman Charlie Wilson secured American and Arab support for the war; hence the term “Charlie Wilson’s War.”

History later revealed that the Afghan Jihad was not a holy war, but a proxy conflict between superpowers, where the name of Islam was exploited to achieve strategic objectives. Passionate young men from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Kenya were used as pawns in the great game.

The Aftermath: A Nation Consumed by Its Own War

When the Soviets withdrew, the so-called Mujahideen turned their guns on one another, devastating their own homeland with American weapons. The bloodshed eventually reached back to those who had fueled it.

In the 1990s, under Benazir Bhutto and Naseerullah Babar, the second “card” the religion card was played again. Students from Pakistani madrassas were gathered, told that the appearance of Imam Mahdi was near, and sent to Afghanistan to prepare for a divine revolution.

They went with conviction, believing it was a sacred duty.

The Rise of the Taliban, and the New Illusion

As the Taliban rose, the warlords retreated, and by 1996, the Taliban controlled nearly all of Afghanistan. For a brief moment, the U.S. and Pakistan breathed a sigh of relief,  but that relief was short-lived.

The Taliban began to see themselves as divinely chosen to lead the world, and from that illusion, a new and dangerous chapter of history began.