Tomatoes, potatoes, and onions see steep declines, easing weekly costs
Pakistan’s Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), a measure of short-term inflation, recorded a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 2.83% for the week ending December 24, 2025, reflecting continued upward pressure on essential goods, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
On a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI fell slightly by 0.09%, indicating a marginal easing in the cost of essential commodities. Out of 51 monitored items, 13 saw price increases, 11 decreased, while 27 remained stable.
Key Price Drivers
The annual rise was largely driven by higher costs for gas, wheat flour, and other essentials:
- Gas (Q1): +29.85%
- Wheat flour: +22.56%
- Sugar: +16.32%
- Beef: +13.01%
- Gur (jaggery): +12.46%
- Bananas: +11.24%
Other contributors included chilli powder, eggs, powdered milk, firewood, and selected clothing items such as lawn (printed fabric) and shirting.
Vegetables and Perishables Provide Relief
The increases were partly offset by sharp declines in perishable foods:
- Tomatoes: -74.92%
- Potatoes: -49.79%
- Garlic: -38.17%
- Onions: -29.23%
- Pulse gram: -29.66%
Tea (Lipton), pulse mash, pulse masoor, electricity (Q1), and LPG also recorded YoY declines, easing the impact for consumers.
Weekly Price Movements
During the week, the largest price drops were observed in:
- Potatoes: -10.37%
- Tomatoes: -9.64%
- Onions: -7.43%
- Sugar: -4.22%
In contrast, prices rose for:
- Chilli powder: +6.26%
- Chicken: +5.29%
- Bananas: +2.46%
- Electricity (Q1): +1.67%
Inflation Across Income Groups
Data showed that the YoY increase ranged from 1.35% for the lowest income group to 2.56% for the highest, suggesting a relatively moderate impact of short-term inflation across different consumption levels.
Outlook
Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia, Head of JS Global Research, expects Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 to reach close to 6%. He projected average inflation for the first half of FY26 at 5.2%, down from 7.3% during the same period last year.
“Food inflation is expected around 4.4% YoY, with month-on-month declines due to lower vegetable prices,” he said. Housing, gas, and electricity are projected to see a 1.4% MoM increase, which, if stable, could moderate headline inflation to around 5.7%.