Democracy under siege: Myanmar’s people watch as the military orchestrates elections while the country remains in conflict and its leaders remain jailed

Myanmar’s pro-military USDP wins nearly 90% of lower house seats in the first phase of junta-controlled elections, amid low turnout, ongoing civil war, and Western criticism of the poll’s legitimacy.

Pro-Military Party Wins First Phase

Myanmar’s dominant pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won the first phase of junta-run elections. Official results released Monday show the USDP taking nearly 90 percent of lower house seats.

Military-Controlled Election

The military staged a 2021 coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratic government. It now oversees a month-long phased election, claiming it will restore power to the people.

Criticism from West and Advocates

Western diplomats and democracy advocates dismiss the election as a rebranding of military rule. They point to Suu Kyi’s imprisonment, the dissolution of her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, crackdowns on dissenters, and a ballot dominated by military allies.

USDP’s Strong Lead

The USDP won 89 of 102 lower house seats in the first phase, over 87 percent of contested seats. The remaining seats went mainly to small ethnic minority parties. Many analysts describe the USDP as a proxy for the military, noting retired officers in senior positions.

Next Phases and Military Advantage

Two more voting rounds are set for January 11 and January 25, covering 265 of Myanmar’s 330 townships. A quarter of lower house seats and key cabinet positions remain reserved for the military under the country’s constitution.

Low Turnout and Conflict

The junta reported 52 percent voter turnout in the first phase, below the roughly 70 percent in 2015 and 2020 elections. Rebel groups and ethnic armed factions continue to resist the military, blocking voting in areas they control.

Civil War and Guerrilla Resistance

The 2021 coup sparked civil war, with pro-democracy protesters forming guerrilla units alongside ethnic armed groups. The military is conducting offensives to regain control over contested territories.

Critical Analysis

1. Military Consolidation of Power
The USDP’s victory shows the military firmly controls political processes. Partial voting results, reserved seats, and a dominated ballot reinforce the junta’s grip.

2. Suppressed Opposition
With Suu Kyi imprisoned and the NLD barred, voters face no meaningful choice. This undermines any claim to legitimacy or representative governance.

3. Civil War Risks
Ongoing insurgency and guerrilla resistance make nationwide elections impossible. Military offensives risk escalating violence and further destabilizing the country.

4. International Legitimacy Challenges
Western nations and democracy advocates view the election as a sham. Broad recognition for any military-controlled government is unlikely.

5. Electoral Manipulation
Partial constituency results and low turnout suggest manipulated transparency. Future phases may reinforce military dominance rather than reflect popular will.