A Major Strategic Shift in global politics
Israel’s recent decision to formally recognise Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state has taken the international community by surprise. The move reflects a broader shift in Israel’s regional strategy, particularly aimed at countering Iran’s influence and expanding its strategic footprint near key maritime routes.
Analysts say the recognition could significantly enhance Israel’s military and intelligence capabilities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while potentially transforming the Horn of Africa into a new arena of geopolitical rivalry.
Strategic Access to Critical Maritime Routes
Somaliland holds exceptional geostrategic value due to its proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping chokepoints linking the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, and Suez Canal.
Israel’s recognition opens the possibility of unprecedented access to these waters, strengthening its ability to monitor maritime traffic and regional security threats.
The region also lies close to Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, who have repeatedly targeted Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict in 2023.
Military Implications and Intelligence Expansion
Experts suggest that if Israel is permitted to deploy assets in Somaliland, it could operate fighter jets and surveillance drones to monitor and potentially strike Houthi positions.
“The option of operating from Somaliland could be a game-changer,” said Asher Lubotzky of the Institute for Israeli-African Relations, noting that past military campaigns by Israel, the US, and Gulf states against the Houthis have yielded limited success.
According to researcher David Khalfa of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, discussions leading to recognition were conducted in strict secrecy, with Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad playing a para-diplomatic role.
Historical Context and Western Interest
Somaliland’s strategic relevance is not new. Formerly under Ottoman influence, it became a British protectorate in the late 19th century before joining Somalia in 1960.
In 1991, Somaliland declared independence from Somalia, though it has remained largely unrecognised internationally. The United States reportedly explored establishing a military base there during the 1980s.
Israel’s recognition now signals an effort to build counter-alliances against Iran along the shores of a politically stable and pro-Western territory—described by analysts as a rare strategic asset in the region.
Rising Concerns Over Militarisation
Security analyst Samira Gaid of Baqiis Insight warned that Israel’s move reinforces fears that the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are increasingly becoming militarised political zones, rather than neutral commercial waterways.
She added that the decision accelerates the deepening entanglement of the Horn of Africa in Middle Eastern power rivalries, a trend that has intensified over the past decade.
Regional Alliances and Growing Rivalries
Somaliland already hosts a UAE military base in Berbera, established under a 2017 agreement. Analysts suggest Abu Dhabi—an Israeli ally—could facilitate Israeli access to the facility.
The region has also drawn interest from Ethiopia, another Israeli ally, which has held talks with Somaliland to develop port facilities along its coastline.
According to Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center, Israel’s recognition aligns closely with its broader network of alliances, as the Horn of Africa increasingly becomes a battleground for so-called middle powers.
Israel–Turkiye Tensions Deepen
Israel’s move is also expected to intensify rivalry with Turkiye, which maintains strong influence in Somalia and has longstanding ambitions in the Horn of Africa.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel’s recognition, calling it “illegitimate and unacceptable.” Analysts warn that Israel’s growing ties with Somaliland could open a new front in regional competition between Ankara and Tel Aviv.