Pakistan Sees Drop in Cross-Border Terrorism After Afghan Border Closure
Pakistan has recorded a notable decline in cross-border terrorist attacks and violence-related fatalities following the closure of its border with Afghanistan on October 11, 2025.
Terrorist incidents fell by nearly 17% in December, following a 9% decline in November. Civilian and security personnel fatalities linked to terrorist violence also decreased, with reductions of 4% and 19% respectively in November and December, according to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) annual security report for 2025.
2025: The Most Violent Year in a Decade
Despite the recent improvements, 2025 remains Pakistan’s most violent year in the past decade, with an overall 34% increase in violence. The country has seen a continuous rise in violence over the last five years, coinciding with the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan:
- 2021: +38%
- 2022: +15%
- 2023: +56%
- 2024: +67%
- 2025: +34%
Fatalities linked to terrorism and counter-terrorism rose from 2,555 in 2024 to 3,417 in 2025, marking an increase of 862 deaths, a 34% year-on-year surge.
Regional Impact: KP and Balochistan Bear the Brunt
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) saw the most significant increase, with fatalities rising from 1,620 in 2024 to 2,331 in 2025, an absolute increase of 711 deaths, accounting for over 82% of the national rise. This represents a 44% year-on-year increase in the province.
- Balochistan experienced 956 fatalities, up from 787, a rise of 169 deaths or 22% higher than 2024 figures.
Together, KP and Balochistan accounted for over 96% of all fatalities and 93% of violent incidents nationwide in 2025.
- KP: 68% of fatalities (2,331), 63% of incidents (795)
- Balochistan: 28% of fatalities (956), 30% of incidents (386)
Lower Violence in Punjab, Sindh, and Other Regions
- Punjab: 25 incidents, 40 fatalities, 24 injuries (1.15% of total casualties)
- Sindh: 51 incidents, 56 fatalities, 40 injuries (1.73% of total casualties)
- Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK): 5 incidents, 103 injuries
- Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT): 5 incidents, 38 injuries
- Gilgit-Baltistan (GB): Least affected, but fatalities increased from 1 to 4
Afghan border closure has led to a marked reduction in terrorist attacks and fatalities. Violence remains concentrated in KP and Balochistan, highlighting the need for focused security operations. Other regions experienced comparatively minor incidents, though injuries were notable in AJK and ICT.